Реферат: Climate change

A review and update of the CCAP was initiated in 1995, involving a federal government interagency review process and a public hearing and comment period. Revisions to the CCAP (and to the calculation of the effects of its measures) were initiated in light of comments received during this process and are reflected in this document. In addition, as called for under FCCC reporting guidelines, the projections of the effects of measures taken are extended to the year 2020, with the understanding that uncertainties become greater in more distant years.

One of the principal products of the review was an assessment of the effectiveness of the CCAP programs, which were rated to be successful at reducing emissions. Currently, more than 5,000 organizations are participating in programs around the United States. The pollution-prevention benefits of these innovative programs are beginning to multiply rapidly in response to the groundwork laid and the partnerships made. In all, the programs are expected to achieve a large portion of the reductions projected in the CCAP. In fact, it is estimated that these programs will result in energy cost savings of $10 billion annually in 2000.

However, the review has also made clear the significantly reduced impact to be expected from the programs as a result of the nearly 40 percent reduction of CCAP funding by Congress from the amount requested by the President, higher-than-expected electricity demand, and lower-than-expected energy prices. In addition, before the programs' implementation, CCAP program managers could not always anticipate the impacts of projected climate change emission reductions. Information available from the first tranche of activity was considered in developing the current projections.

A second product of the review was the identification of several measures that have since been added to the CCAP portfolio. The most significant of these is the Environmental Stewardship Initiative, which greatly expands activities already included in the CCAP, and focuses on reducing the emissions of extremely potent greenhouse gases from three industrial applications--semiconductor production, electrical transmission and distribution systems, and magnesium casting. The expanded initiative is anticipated to reduce emissions by an additional 6.5 MMTCE by 2000, and 10.0 MMTCE by 2010. Other programs include improving energy efficiency in the construction of and supply of energy to commercial and industrial buildings, expanding residential markets for energy-efficient lighting products, and providing information on renewable energy to reduce barriers to the adoption of clean technologies.

The analysis of individual actions is integrated with revised forecasts of economic growth, energy prices, program funding, and regulatory developments to provide an updated comprehensive perspective on current and projected greenhouse gas emission levels. This analysis involved an updating of the baseline calculation in light of new economic assumptions regarding energy prices, economic growth, and technology improvements, among other factors. In 1993, the first U.S. submission projected year 2000 baseline emissions to be 106 MMTCE above their 1990 levels; with current program funding, emissions are now projected to exceed 1990 levels by 188 MMTCE. Two principal factors are responsible:

·     The analysis used to develop CCAP significantly underestimated the reductions that would be needed by programs to return emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. This was due to several factors, including lower-than-expected fuel prices, strong economic growth, regulatory limitations within and outside of CCAP, and improved information on emissions of some potent greenhouse gases.

·     In addition, diminished levels of funding by Congress have affected both CCAP programs and other federal programs that reduce emissions, limiting their effectiveness.

While neither the measures initiated in 1993 nor the additional actions developed since then and included in this report will be adequate to meet the emissions goal enunciated by the President, they have significantly reduced emissions below growth rates that otherwise would have occurred. Based on current funding levels, the revised action plan is expected to reduce emissions by 76 MMTCE in the year 2000--or 70 percent of the reductions projected in the CCAP. Annual energy cost savings to businesses and consumers from CCAP actions are anticipated to be $10 billion (1995 dollars) by the year 2000. Even greater reductions are estimated from these measures in the post-2000 period: reductions of 169 MMTCE are projected for 2010, and 230 MMTCE for 2020. Annual energy savings are projected to grow to $50 billion (1995 dollars) in the year 2010.

A separate component of this chapter addresses the U.S. Initiative on Joint Implementation. Projects undertaken through this initiative allow private-sector partners to offset emissions from domestic activities through reductions achieved in other countries. The Climate Convention established a pilot program for joint implementation at the first meeting of the Conference of the Parties. Guidelines for reporting under the pilot program were established by the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice at its fifth session in February 1997. This report uses those guidelines to report on project activity.

Research and Systematic Observation

The U.S. government has dedicated significant resources to research on global climate change. U.S. research efforts (some of which include the private sector) are divided into several general categories, including prediction of climate change, impacts and adaptation, mitigation and new technologies, and socioeconomic analysis and assessment. In addition, U.S. scientists actively coordinate with research and capacity-building efforts in other countries.

The principal vehicle for undertaking climate change research at the federal level is the United States Global Change Research Program. The multiagency program was funded in fiscal year 1997 at approximately $1.8 billion. A significant portion of the Research Program's activities is targeted at improving capabilities to predict climate change, including the human-induced contribution to climate change, and its implications for society and the environment. The United States also is committed to continuing programs in research and observation, with the aim of developing the information base required to improve predictions of climate change and its repercussions, as well as the ability to reduce emissions while sustaining food production, ecosystems, and economic development.

Extensive efforts also are being made to understand the consequences of climate change, regional impacts, and the potential for adaptation. Another area being explored by researchers is the development of technologies that would enable the United States to supply energy, food, water, ecosystem services, and a healthy environment to U.S. citizens, while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These efforts have been divided into short- and longer-term projects involving the private sector, as well as government-sponsored research.

Perhaps most notable in the international component of the research effort is U.S. participation in IPCC work. U.S. scientists participated in the preparation and review of nearly all of the more than 100 chapters of the over 2,000-page report. Researchers also participated in the collection and analysis of the underlying data through programs as varied as the World Climate Research Program, the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Program, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and an impressive array of bilateral scientific and technical work.

The Future

Overall, the conclusions to be drawn from this report can be summarized in three parts:

·     Climate change is a clearly defined problem and is well recognized at the highest levels in the U.S. government. Senior officials (from the President to heads of cabinet agencies and departments) have taken a strong stand in favor of seeking to reduce emissions.

·     The combined effort to address climate change (described in this report, and including the Research Program, the total costs of U.S. mitigation actions, and the international effort) are in excess of $2 billion--a significant step by any standard.

·     Notwithstanding this effort, emissions continue to grow. More aggressive actions must be taken to combat the threat of climate change.

The United States is developing a long-term, post-2000 strategy to address the climate change problem. This effort, which has both a multilateral, international focus and a domestic focus, is expected to be made public in the next few months. It will be based on an extensive analytic effort to assess the effects of an array of additional policy choices, including setting legally binding, internationally agreed caps on emissions. It will consider the advantages of market-based instruments for both domestic and international emissions trading, as well as joint implementation for credit with developing countries. It will consider approaches to be taken for gases for which monitoring and measurement are relatively simple (e.g., for carbon dioxide emissions from stationary energy sources), as well as those gases for which emissions are more difficult to measure (such as nitrous oxides from agriculture).

Currently underway, the effort is intensive and time-consuming. It involves more than twenty agencies within the federal government, as well as several offices in the Executive Office of the President. Congress will be consulted in the development of policies and will most likely need to enact legislation to implement any agreed program. A significant stakeholder outreach program will be undertaken over the next several months to engage the best thinking on alternative approaches, and following adoption of a program to ensure maximum compliance with the course of action chosen.

Ö www.state.gov

Ö http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/climate/index.html

Ö Global Warming International Center