Реферат: Climate change
National Circumstances
In responding to the threat of global climate change,
U.S. policymakers must consider the special circumstances created by a unique
blend of challenges and opportunities. The National Circumstances chapter of
this report attempts to explain the particular situation in the United
States--including its climate, natural resources, population trends, economy,
energy mix, and political system--as a backdrop for understanding the U.S.
perspective on global climate change.
The United States is unusual in that it encompasses a
wide variety of climate conditions within its borders, from subtropical to
tundra. This diversity complicates the discussion of impacts of global climate
change within the United States because those impacts would vary widely. This
diversity also adds to U.S. emission levels, as heating and cooling demands
drive up emissions. Recent record levels of precipitation--both in snowfall and
rain--consistent with what could be expected under a changed climate, have
raised the awareness of climate impacts at the local and regional levels, and
may make it somewhat easier to predict the effects of increased precipitation.
The United States also is uncommonly rich in land
resources, both in extent and diversity. U.S. land area totals about 931 million
hectares (2.3 billion acres), including grassland pasture and range, forest,
and cropland. Forested land has been increasing, while grasslands and croplands
are slowly declining and being converted to other uses. The decline in wetlands
has slowed significantly as a result of the "no net loss" policy
being implemented.
With just over 265 million people, the United States
is the third most populous country in the world, although population density
varies widely throughout the country, and is generally very low. Although
population increase is moderate from a global perspective, it is high relative
to the average for all industrialized countries. Moreover, the number of
households is growing rapidly. These and other factors drive U.S. emissions to
higher per capita rates than those in most other countries with higher
population densities, smaller land areas, or more concentrated distribution of
resources to population centers.
The U.S. market economy is based on property rights
and a reliance on the efficiency of the market as a means of allocating
resources. The government plays a key role in addressing market failures and
promoting social welfare, including through the imposition of regulations on
pollutants and the protection of property rights, but is cautious in its
interventions. Thus, the infrastructure exists to limit emissions of greenhouse
gases--although the strong political and economic preference is to undertake
such controls through flexible and cost-effective programs, including voluntary
programs and market instruments, where appropriate.
U.S. economic growth averaged 3 percent annually from
1960 to 1993, and employment nearly tripled as the overall labor force
participation rate rose to 66 percent. The service sector--which includes
communications, utilities, finance, insurance, and real estate--has grown
rapidly, and now accounts for more than 36 percent of the economy. The
increasing role of trade in the U.S. economy heightens concerns about the
competitiveness effects of climate policies.
During the 1980s, the U.S. budget deficit grew
rapidly, as did the ratio of debt to gross domestic product, and a political
consensus emerged on the goal of a balanced budget. The result is a tighter
federal budget with many competing priorities.
The United States is the world's largest energy
producer and consumer. Abundant resources of all fossil fuels have contributed
to low prices and specialization in relatively energy-intensive activities.
Energy consumption has nearly doubled since 1960, and would have grown far
more, because of growth in the economy, population, and transportation needs,
had it not been for impressive reductions in U.S. energy intensity. Industrial
energy intensity has declined most markedly, due to structural shifts and
efficiency improvements. In the residential and commercial sectors, efficiency
improvements largely offset the growth in the number and size of both
residential and commercial buildings. Likewise, in the transportation sector,
efficiency moderated the rise in total fuel consumption from 1973 to 1995 to
only 26 percent, despite dramatic increases in both the number of vehicles and
the distances they are driven. Fossil fuel prices below levels assumed in the
1993 Climate Change Action Plan, however, have contributed to the unexpectedly
large growth in U.S. emissions.
While unique national circumstances point to the
reasons for the current levels (and increases) in U.S. emissions, they also
suggest the potential for emission reductions. Successful government and private-sector
programs are beginning to exploit some of the inefficiencies in the
manufacturing sector. The development of new, climate-friendly technologies is
a rapidly growing industry, with significant long-term potential for domestic
and international emission reductions.
Greenhouse
Gas Inventory
Inventorying the national emissions of greenhouse
gases is a task shared by several departments within the executive branch of
the federal government, including the Environmental Protection Agency, the
Department of Energy and the Department of Agriculture. The Greenhouse Gas
Inventory chapter summarizes the most current information on U.S. greenhouse
gas emission trends--and represents the 1997 submission from the United States
in fulfillment of its annual inventory reporting obligation. The estimates
presented in this chapter were compiled using methods consistent with those
recommended by the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories;
therefore, the U.S. emissions inventory should be comparable to those submitted
by others under the FCCC.
Table 1-1 summarizes the recent trends in U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 1995. The three most important
anthropogenic greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4),
and nitrous oxide (N2O). Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are also
inventoried. Consistent with the requirements in the Climate Convention only to
address emissions of gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol on
Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer, chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions are
not inventoried, nor are mitigation measures for these compounds described.
Table
1-1
Recent Trends in U.S. Greenhouse Gas
Emissions: 1990-1995
(MMTs of Carbon Equivalent)
|
|
Gases and Sources
|
Emissions--Direct and Indirect Effects
|
|
|
1990 |
1991 |
1992 |
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
Carbon
Dioxide (CO2)
|
1,228 |
1,213 |
1,235 |
1,268 |
1,291 |
1,305 |
Fossil
Fuel Combustion |
1,336 |
1,320 |
1,340 |
1,370 |
1,391 |
1,403 |
Industrial
Processes and Other |
17 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
Total |
1,353 |
1,336 |
1,357 |
1,388 |
1,410 |
1,422 |
Forests
(sink)* |
(125) |
(123) |
(122) |
(120) |
(119) |
(117) |
Methane
(CH4)
|
170 |
172 |
173 |
171 |
176 |
177 |
Landfills |
56 |
58 |
58 |
60 |
62 |
64 |
Agriculture |
50 |
51 |
52 |
52 |
54 |
55 |
Coal
Mining |
24 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
Oil
and Natural Gas Systems |
33 |
33 |
34 |
33 |
33 |
33 |
Other |
6 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Nitrous
Oxide (N2O)
|
36 |
37 |
37 |
38 |
39 |
40 |
Agriculture |
17 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
Fossil
Fuel Consumption |
11 |
11 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
Industrial
Processes |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
HFCs |
12 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
17 |
21 |
PFCs |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
SF6
|
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
U.S. Emissions |
1,583 |
1,570 |
1,592 |
1,624 |
1,657 |
1,676 |
Net U.S. Emissions |
1,458 |
1,447 |
1,470 |
1,504 |
1,538 |
1,559 |
Note:
The totals presented in the summary tables in this chapter may not equal the
sum of the individual source categories due to rounding.
*
These estimates for the conterminous United States for 1990-91 and 1993-95
are interpolated from forest inventories in 1987 and 1992 and from projections
through 2040. The calculation method reflects long-term averages, rather than
specific events in any given year.
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Overall, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions have increased
annually by just over one percent. The trend of U.S. emissions--which decreased
from 1990 to 1991, and then increased again in 1992--is a consequence of
changes in total energy consumption resulting from the U.S. economic slowdown
in the beginning of this decade and its subsequent recovery.
Carbon dioxide accounts for the largest share of U.S.
greenhouse gases--approximately 85 percent--although the carbon sinks in
forested lands offset CO2 emissions by about 8 percent. During
1990-95, greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise in the United States, with
CO2 increasing approximately 6 percent, methane approximately 4
percent, N2O nearly 10 percent, and HFCs approximately 7 percent.
Fossil fuel combustion accounts for 99 percent of total U.S. CO2
emissions. (Chapter 3 of this report explains the use of MMTCE in converting emissions
of greenhouse gases to carbon equivalents.)
Although methane emissions are lower than CO2
emissions, methane's footprint is large: in a 100-year time span it is
considered to be twenty-one times more effective than CO2 at
trapping heat in the atmosphere and is responsible for about 10 percent of the
warming caused by U.S. emissions. In addition, in the last two centuries alone,
methane concentrations in the atmosphere have more than doubled. Emissions of
methane are largely generated by landfills, agriculture, oil and natural gas
systems, and coal mining, with landfills comprising the single largest source
of the gas. In 1995, methane emissions from U.S. landfills were 63.5 MMTCE,
equaling approximately 36 percent of total U.S. methane emissions. Agriculture
supplied about 30 percent of U.S. methane emissions in that same year.
Nitrous oxide is also emitted in much smaller amounts
than carbon dioxide in the United States and is responsible for approximately
2.4 percent of the U.S. share of the greenhouse effect. However, like methane,
it is a more powerful heat trap--310 times more powerful than carbon dioxide at
trapping heat in the atmosphere over a 100-year period. The main anthropogenic
activities producing nitrous oxide are agriculture, fossil fuel combustion, and
the production of adipic and nitric acids. Figures from 1995 show the
agricultural sector emitting 46 percent of the total (18.4 MMTCE), with fossil
fuel combustion generating 31 percent.
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are among the compounds
introduced to replace ozone-depleting substances, which are being phased out as
a result of the Vienna Convention and its Montreal Protocol on Substances That
Deplete the Ozone Layer, and the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. Because HFCs
have significant potential to alter the Earth's radiative balance, they are
included in this inventory. Many of the compounds of this nature are extremely
stable and remain in the atmosphere for extended periods of time, which results
in a significant atmospheric accumulation over time. U.S. emissions of these
gases have risen nearly 60 percent as they are phased in as substitutes for
gases that are no longer allowed under the Montreal Protocol--a rate of growth
that is not anticipated to continue. Currently, HFCs account for less than 2
percent of U.S. radiative forcing.
Mitigating Climate Change
In October 1993, in response to the threat of global climate change,
President Clinton and Vice President Gore announced the Climate Change Action
Plan (CCAP). The Plan was designed to reduce U.S. emissions of greenhouse
gases, while guiding the U.S. economy toward environmentally sound economic
growth into the next century. This report updates the programs in the CCAP
(including an appendix providing one-page descriptions of each program),
describes several additional initiatives developed to further reduce emission
growth rates, and estimates future emissions based on the current set of
practices and programs.
CCAP programs represent an effort to stimulate actions that are both
profitable for individual private-sector participants as well as beneficial to
the environment. Currently, more than forty programs are in effect, combining
efforts of the government at the federal, state, and local levels with those of
the private sector. The CCAP has five goals: preserving the environment,
enhancing sustainable growth environmentally and economically, building
partnerships, involving the public, and encouraging international emission
reductions.
Carbon dioxide emissions constitute the bulk of U.S. greenhouse gas
emissions. CCAP recognizes that investing in energy efficiency is the most
cost-effective way to reduce these emissions. The largest proportion of CCAP
programs contains measures that reduce carbon dioxide emissions while simultaneously
enhancing domestic productivity and competitiveness. Other programs seek to
reduce carbon dioxide emissions by investing in renewable-energy and other
low-carbon, energy-supply technologies, which will also provide longer-term
benefits, such as increased efficiency and related cost-savings and pollution
prevention. A smaller number of programs are targeted at methane, nitrous
oxide, and other greenhouse gases (Table 1-2).
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